2024 has seen a real paradigm shift in Social Media and its usage. I have posted about this many times (!) because after solid and real growth for decades we are seeing some real shifts, with users (MAU aka monthly average users) dropping for many platforms and real censorship happening on a grand scale, cough X/Twitter and Meta. As an activitypub and fediverse user I am also starting to see a stagnation there too. Recently it has come to my attention that FediDB has had some updates, and I took a dive into the figures today, and well they aren’t looking great.
This is a screenshot from just now, and yes the numbers are rising. However the MAU figures aren’t rising in any way shape or form as fast as total users, whilst server counts are rising at roughly the same rate as they have done over the past 2 years. How can this be you ask, well I can think of several reasons straight away. 2024 has seen a decline in how social media is used. The ongoing privacy sagas, the fact that you have to play the game with social media to get seen and a real case of people who have just had enough of the churn that exists around a social media presence have all contributed to a massive slow down in social media posts and engagement. This isn’t just a fediverse/activitypub thing – it’s happening everywhere. As X/Twitter lurches from one Musk mistake to another, the users *should* be going somewhere shouldn’t they? Well this really isn’t being seen like it should be. I think this is down to a few things – companies are just not using X like they used to, advertisers are leaving, and well the quality of the platform both in posts/engagement and just stability as they slash costs has all suffered greatly. Being banned in Brazil this week certainly won’t have helped either… but those companies already have social media presences elsewhere so just leaving X doesn’t necessarily mean that a platform gains the same amount who leave the muskiverse!
This same idea has happened over at Meta too. As people leave or just stop using their services, they aren’t really going anywhere else as most already have a social media presence as I have already said. This appears to be resulting in just less posting all together – dropping the platforms on the periphery and concentrating on a handful seems to be a real thing these days. Choose a few and just use them is how I see it now. The massive growth days are over as far as I can see, and now these big platforms with their high costs and terrible privacy and security records are, well, losing out. They are blasting people with ads, yet ad revenue is falling even more as people just switch off.
So after saying all of this, why aren’t people flocking to be on mastodon/pixelfed/peertube? Well….it seems that despite all the advantages these platforms offer – the vast majority of people just see the numbers. They see user numbers on other platforms that dwarf activitypu/fediverse numbers. Look at the MAU on FediDB. They are still “only” just over a million, yes a million. Great numbers but a fraction of Meta products numbers for example. Threads has figures of around 200 million MAU, yes 200 times that of the fediverse that is a direct competitor, and they now federate (that is another discussion however). There is a real risk that fediverse servers will become left behind with threads if it continues to grow like it is. Threads is one of the few platforms that seems to be weathering the storm right now, but as we all know they will at some point introduce ads and then it too will decline.
So, to close this post what do I think the future holds? Well – if I’m honest, I can’t see the fediverse taking over as it exists right now. Too fragmented, numbers are poor compared to other platforms, and well… it’s niche and will remain so. However perhaps this is the strength it needs – it offers something different. I have seen some platforms that are trying to let people monetize things in the fediverse, and whilst I wish them well I’m not sure if this is the way it should go either. Monetization has ruined Youtube for example, with product reviews now being next to useless as they are all promoted either with a free product or incentives meaning they rarely point out the downsides. There is so much more about the monetization of platforms that has been discussed but let’s say – for me – it has not helped at all. A short term bubble which has well and truly burst is what I think!
As usual I welcome debate, I mean it has been quiet here this year with only a few responses, but I’d like to hear your views nonetheless. Have a great weekend and I’ll see you on the other side of August!
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